Wednesday, January 18, 2012

What's the next baseball inefficiency

I watched Moneyball last weekend. It was a fair movie that I enjoyed based off a book written by Billy Beane about drafting only fat college players with high OBP's* Obviously Moneyball was written several years ago and people have caught onto the particular market inefficiency and it's been corrected. Teams keep striving for the next inefficiency. Young cost controlled pitching, defense, etc. have gone in vogue recently. What may some team do to get a leg up with so many other smart teams around.

*This statement has been approved by Joe Morgan.

While sabermaticians have got a lot of offense value stats pretty clear, there is a still a wide range of defensive stats that could be better. I want to look at some team building stuff on a deeper level. I'm sure most teams with smarter people than me already do this, it's just not widely reported.

The Cleveland Indians this off-season traded for Derek Lowe which makes them a very ground ball heavy staff. Now ground balls are much more likely to turn into singles and errors than fly balls, but they also can't leave the park and very rarely go for extra bases along with the added benefit of a possible double play. Cleveland's infield defense is pretty set and doesn't feature many elite defensive players, but the idea is still novel. Just as adding certain players is worth it more to teams at a certain point on the win curve, adding certain players seems to get more value out of them with the right supporting cast (teammates and ballpark).

Now imagine the Texas Rangers had traded for Lowe? They play in an offense first park that yields a lot of HR's and have an infield consisting of Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler all amongst the best at their respective positions. This seems like a match made in heaven for a ground ball pitcher. Would anyone be really surprised if Lowe threw up something like a 3.50 ERA on the heels of a .245 BABIP with this crew? His true talent level isn't really that, but the supporting cast is already in place. From an added value perspective, he would seem to be pretty valuable. Similarly the Padres can take on fly ball pitchers and field a good outfield defense because nothing's leaving PETCO. They have an outsized impact because of their environment.

Let's change the variable. Let's say a team has a great outfield defense and a lot of left hand fly ball pitchers. Now theoretical team is also in need of a second baseman. Since lots of balls are going to be airborne and often to the left side, who cares how he fields because he'll be getting less chances than the average 2B. It would make a lot more sense for a team to sign a slugger with an iron glove because the offense added over an average 2B would be a lot less than the defense lost.

Billy Beane's theory was revolutionary and it worked for a while, but the industry caught on. You can't just sign fat players and walk your way to the playoffs every year. Teams have hired smart men who are always trying to one up the others. I am eagerly looking forward to the next market inefficiency and am hoping it's Theo and Jed that come up with it. They'd better capitalize quick though because it won't last long.

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