Championship games will determine the college football playoff participants this year with reasonably 9 teams still in contention and a lot of different scenarios. How they all play out is fascinating and worthy of further analysis.
All non-Pac 12 championship participants plus Alabama have dreams of getting into the playoff. Standings after week 13
1. Clemson
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Miami
8. Ohio State
11. TCU
Penn St is #9 but has no realistic chance to make it. At least 3 teams ahead of them will win and Alabama is ahead of them and idle.
USC is #10, but again at least 3 teams ahead of them will win and I can't see a win over Stanford pushing the needle enough to get past Alabama or one of the other champs.
The winner of the ACC and SEC will get in. Some may argue Miami, but if they beat Clemson, their resume vs. Alabama is a slam dunk even if Alabama may actually be a better team.
The losers this weekend (with 2 possible remote exceptions) are eliminated. That leaves really 4 scenarios with not many variables.
Scenario 1: Wisconsin and Oklahoma win
This is the easy one. The top 4 remain the same and probably in that order.
Scenario 2: Ohio St and Oklahoma win
Top 3 remain the same and the debate over #4 is between Ohio St and Alabama.
Scenario 3: Wisconsin and TCU win
Oklahoma falls out of top 3 and debate is between TCU and Alabama. Probably not as close as the Ohio St./Alabama debate.
Scenario 3 (wacky subplot): Miami wins a close game over Clemson in addition to TCU/Wisconsin wins. Would Clemson get the nod over Alabama and TCU? Maybe. It's at least a possibility. Could also apply to Scenario 2 as well, but less likely.
Scenario 4: Ohio St and TCU win
The closest thing to total chaos. Last 2 spots would be a debate between OSU/TCU/Alabama and maybe Clemson under same wacky subplot as scenario 3 if Miami wins.
Scenario 4 (additional wacky subplot): TCU and OSU both win close games. Could the committee jump Oklahoma over OSU in this scenario due to head to head and also over Alabama? Maybe. This option certainly provides the most debate
I'd love to see one of the wacky scenarios play out, but chances are we either see the Top 4 stay the same with little argument or we get a few days talking points on Alabama vs. OSU and/or TCU arguments.
