With a couple data points for each team, let's take a look at how my intuitions this season are playing out.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (12-5)
One of the Super Bowl contenders. Josh Allen may have a few stinkers, but I still expect them to win the division.
Week 3 update: Right on track. Still can't believe they lost the Jets game.
Miami Dolphins (11-6)
All predicated on Tua's health. We saw what this offense could do last year and the defense should be better with the addition of Ramsey and others.
Week 3 update: I'm not sure the defense is better, but the offense sure is good so far.
New York Jets (10-7)
I'm still not sure I'm as high on the offense as the consensus. QB's fall of a cliff quickly around this time. But still, they went 7-10 with Zach Wilson last year so the offense just has to be functional for this to be a good team.
Week 3 update: "I'm still not sure I'm as high on the offense as the consensus." Nailed it! This offense stinks! In all seriousness, if you told me Zach Wilson was starting, I'd probably say 6-11. This is a talented team with a black hole at QB again.
New England Patriots (6-11)
Belichik is still here so defense will be solid enough, but woof the offense has weapons including the QB. They'll be competitive, but could be a rough season.
Week 3 update: Seems about right so far. Two competitive games. Two losses.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
They've been leading the division the last two years before Lamar Jackson was injured. If the new OC can keep him healthy and get the offense going, they are a dark horse Super Bowl team.
Week 3 update: Looks good so far and even better is Cincy's collapse.
Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
Burrow is good (although overrated in the national media) and the receivers will keep the offense going. Lots of turnover on defense. We'll see how they can adapt to new personnel.
Week 3 update: Burrow seems like he's hurt. I still like them to make the playoffs if he's healthy, but if not, could be a long season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
I don't get all the hype. Pickett was...fine last year. Still I would feel guilty picking Mike Tomlin to go under .500. Defense should keep them in enough games to get there.
Week 3 update: This offense stinks! I didn't expect it to be this bad. Still their defense just single handedly won them a game.
Cleveland Browns (6-11)
This is my hill to die on this year. Watson just isn't really a good QB. I've thought that since he was in Houston and I saw him against my team 2 times a year. He'll make some highlight reel plays, but he takes waaaaay too many sacks. Dumb trade and dumb contract. Add that to a competitive division and I don't see them close to sniffing the playoffs.
Week 3 update: I'm very happy with how Watson has performed (because I'm rooting against him). I'm very sad Chubb got hurt. He's a fun player. I think I underestimated the defense and running game in this preview, but now that the running game will not be the same, I'm still confident in it.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
Ridley should be a big boost to the offense and I expect Lawrence to take another step forward this year. Still some questions on defense, but they should easily win the weak South even if they fall short of the other Super Bowl contenders in the loaded AFC.
Week 3 update: Lawrence has not looked great in 2 games. Ridley was excellent in game 1 and invisible in game 2. Defense has been stout.
Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
I am so glad they got Richardson. He's dynamic and not as raw as the narrative. I fell in love with him as a prospect not just due to his physical attributes, but his pocket presence.
Still the Jonathan Taylor situation looms and the secondary is ridiculously young. We also don't know how Shaq Leonard is going to look after mostly a year away. I think they'll score some points, but opposing offenses should be able to throw against them unless the pass rush really steps up.
Week 3 update: Super impressed with Richardson, but needs to learn how to take hits. Also pleasantly surprised with Steichen. Loved his play calls against the Texans. Baker was horrible though and the secondary remains my biggest concern. D-Line has been excellent though. Lots of ups and down this years, but it's a fun team.
Tennessee Titans (6-11)
I keep predicting this every year and maybe I should have a Vrabel rule similar to the Tomlin one. Still I just don't see the weapons on offense and Henry has to slow down sometime. Their defense will keep them in games, but a collapse is coming sooner rather than later unless Willis or Levis turn into a guy.
Week 3 update: Putting the Vrabel math in next year. I don't know how they are competitive every year.
Houston Texans (3-14)
I like Stroud, but after life on a loaded Ohio St team, how does he re-act when he sees more pressure and doesn't have the receiving talent. Still early in the rebuild the Texans are on the right track, but just don't have enough talent to stack up.
Week 3 update: Stroud has impressed, but absolutely wrecked by injuries to everyone else. Giving up a top 5 pick to the Cardinals is going to hurt.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
They have the best coach and by far the best QB in football. They may not make the Super Bowl, but that starting point guarantees they will always be a contender.
Week 3 update: I stand by this. A WR single handedly costs them 10 points and a win on opening night where they were missing their 2nd and 3rd best players. Not sure if I've ever seen that before. They'll be fine, but the offense is concerning if Kelce is out any more.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
They've got so much talent, they have to do something right? Is Brandon Staley the next Norv Turner in leading talented Chargers teams to nothing? I guess we'll find out this year. I think they'll be fine, but short of the big guns.
Week 3 update: They are not fine. At some point all the losing begins to be more than random noise.
Denver Broncos (7-10)
Russ seems cooked. Payton is a good coach and the roster isn't devoid of talent so I would not be surprised if they snuck into the playoffs with some luck. The upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett is worth a few wins by itself.
Week 3 update: They are in trouble this year. Lost 2 winnable games. Russ does look better, but this team is almost done.
Oakland Raiders (5-12)
I just don't think McDaniels is a good coach and the defense is so bad going up against all these good AFC QB's. I'm also baking in a Jimmy G gets hurt variable in this. If he's healthy all year I think they are close to .500. History tells us that doesn't happen though.
Week 3 update: I'm not sure how much we have learned here. They did at least get a close win this year already.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
There could be some regression here. Last year was driven by an excellent O-Line and if they get injuries that running game could get stuck in the mud. AJ Brown is such a game changer here the floor is high enough. Lots of new defenders, but young and talented so shouldn't be much of a dropoff on that side.
Week 3 update: Offense looks shaky at times, but still a good team.
Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Kind of the inverse of the Chiefs. McCarthy and Prescott have some good things, but not sure how much I trust them overall. Offense has some weapons and defense is scary.
Week 3 update: Defense is really really really scary. Prescott also had a wonderful game carving up a good Jets D. They would be my Super Bowl pick as of today, but we'll see if they can keep it up all year.
Washington Commanders (7-10)
Another mediocre season. The defense is too good to bottom out and the offense has a few playmakers, but no QB (sorry Sam Howell). I like the Bienemy addition and think they'll be a tough out, but fall short of a winning record.
Week 3 update: 2-0 even if one was a close game over a very bad team. They may get that winning record.
New York Giants (6-11)
The regression monster is coming. Not a whole lot to improve this team from last year. Daboll is going to have to get every ounce out of Daniel Jones and I'm not counting on another repeat of last year.
Week 3 update: Narrowly avoided disaster. They were always going to regress, but didn't think it would be as bad as we've seen so far.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (9-8)
I know this is a fun team, but I hated their draft and now one of their exciting young receivers is suspended. They got the absolute max out of Goff last year. If there is any regression, they could be in trouble. Still the class of a bad division.
Week 3 update: Still not super impressed with them. Still probably won't matter.
Green Bay Packers (8-9)
I'm hedging on Jordan Love being servicable and LaFleur having a pretty good track record as a HC. This could swing wildly depending on QB play. Some solid defensive players and a step forward from young guys on offense could lead to a playoff berth.
Week 3 update: Love is actually 2nd in DVOA, but one of those games is against the Bears so let's pump the breaks a bit after the 0'fer in the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This could still go either way.
Minnesota Vikings (8-9)
The regression monster is coming Part 2: Bigger & better. The Vikings could have the same baseline as last year and finish with this record. That's how crazy their season was. Justin Jefferson is such a beast and I see the offense just being too good to bottom out. I like the Flores addition too, but the defense still won't be good.
Week 3 update: Same as the Giants. Didn't see regression hitting this hard.
Chicago Bears (5-12)
I guess this is my NFC hill to die on. Lots of people are talking playoffs and Fields MVP. Um no. Can't see it. He would have to make such a colossal leap this year and I can't see that happening. Incremental improvement with some better weapons sure. Also this defense was terrible last year and traded its best player at the deadline. Even if Fields does take a leap, they are still going no better than 9-8.
Week 3 update: Is this the most dysfunctional team in football right now? I'm not sure I would bet them over 4.5 wins at this point and I thought my prediciton was pessimistic.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (11-6)
A product of schedule. This division plays the NFC North and AFC South. Someone has to win those games. The defense is good. Carr is fine and they've got some offensive weapons. I don't expect anything in the playoffs, but they have a lot of bad teams to play and are better than most of their opponents.
Week 3 update: Just gotta be faster than the slowest person to outrun the bear.
Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
A product of schedule. This division plays the NFC North and AFC South. Someone has to win those games. In an average division I would have them under .500 easily. They are a cut above mediocre.
Week 3 update: This is a fun team. Still pretty lucky to be 2-0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
A product...ok you get the point. The Bucs still have a good defense and good receivers. The secret the national media won't reveal is Brady was kind of bad last year. Is Baker Mayfield that much of a downgrade? I think the two teams above them improved from last year, but this is about the same team they ran out last year.
Week 3 update: Again it's the Bears, but 2-0 in a rebuilding year looks nice.
Carolina Panthers (7-10)
I'm not really excited about this team, but despite losing the thread the last few years in Indy, Reich is a solid enough coach and Bryce Young should be ok enough to hang in a few games and pick up a few wins over the dregs.
Week 3 update: Oof. Frank is back to his 2nd and long runs and Bryce looks like Mac Jones with better mobility so far. It's going to be a long season. Maybe Bears get 1-2 instead of Cards.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
Consider this a hedge on Brock Purdy. This roster is stacked. If he plays well they could easily win 14 games. Even if he's a disaster they are still probably a playoff team. I went somewhere in between, but this could easily look silly by the end of the year.
Week 3 update: This looks silly. Who cares if Brock Purdy can play from behind when they are never ever behind. Would love to see Niners-Cowboys in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
I like the pieces they added. Even with some regression from Geno, I think they'll be around where they were last year and a tick better if he can prove it wasn't a fluke year.
Week 3 update: I still like this one.
Los Angeles Rams (7-10)
Another one that may look silly by the end of the year. I think if Stafford/Kupp/Donald stay healthy they'll be a scrappy team, but ultimately don't have the talent.
Week 3 update: And this one, just replace Kupp with Puka Nacua (must say full name)
Arizona Cardinals (2-15)
They aren't trying to win so I'm not really going to try to analyze them. It'll be juicy when they pick 1-2 in the draft.
Week 3 update: The Cardinals and Bears could end up with 2 picks a piece in the top 4.
