Today I'll take a mostly totally subjective look at attacking this question. I've seen and am loyal to DVOA numbers from FO, but there is a little more nuance and working parts in football as compared to baseball so straight statistics don't always tell the whole story. I've heard this topic debated quite a bit by the on air personalities recently.
What defines elite? Before getting into things, I'll go ahead and say being a top 6 QB top 20% is around what we are looking for. Subjectively you want a guy who is going to be able to put a team on his back every once in a while if other facets of the game are struggling. Basically, is this guy capable of carrying your team to the Super Bowl? Also I want to look at who you'd want strictly for 2012 and then the best options for the next five years.
I think right now there is a definite elite that no one will argue with consisting of Rodgers, Brees and Brady. If Peyton Manning vintage 2010 returns, he'll add a 4th, but that topic is worthy of a whole new post, so any Peyton related thoughts are stricken from this article.
With all due respect to the following, we'll quickly gloss over them into the more interesting cases. Sorry to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Matt Moore, Colt McCoy, Matt Hasselback/Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub/TJ Yates, Carson Palmer, Tim Tebow, Matt Cassell, Rex Grossman, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, Tavarias Jackson, Kevin Kolb/John Skelton, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith. Not saying none of these guys could ever win a Super Bowl (Smith has a good shot this year), but if they do, it'll be because other aspects of their teams are functioning at an elite level and they are playing well enough to be a good complmentary piece. In addition to the 3 givens above, I present the following list ranked from lowest to highest in my opinion and ask if Eli is better than them.
Andy Dalton
Nowhere near elite now, but showed good poise his rookie year and beat the teams he should. He'll never be the best QB in the league, but if things break right, I could see him being a significant contributor to a good squad. Better than Eli now? For the next 5 years? (No/No)
Joe Flacco
With Baltimore's defense, Flacco very well may win the Super Bowl. He's just not a great QB. Putrid performances in part helped them lose to the Sparkle Kitties on MNF. Flacco usually doesn't hurt them too much, but if the Ravens fall behind by 20 do you really think they are getting on Flacco's back and mounting a comeback? (No/No)
Michael Vick
Now we start getting into some QB's who can have an outsized impact on single games. Vick's ability is amazing. While not terribly accurate, he's improved himself enough to be adequate in that department and when do the other things he does, adequate can cut it as far as accuracy. He still throws up a stink bomb game from time to time and you'd better have a good backup QB for the 2-6 games Vick will miss annually. We're getting closer but still.... (No/No)
Matthew Stafford
Stafford's got a huge arm and thanks to a shootout with GB in Week 17 topped 5000 yards. Impressive, but he still has some accuracy issues as well and looks a better than he really is thanks to having a massive robot to throw passes to. When it doubt bomb it to Megatron. He will catch. I like the direction the Lions are going, but Stafford's not quite there yet. (No/No)
Matt Ryan
Now we have Mr. Consistency. The Falcons set a record for most consistant team ever in the FO database for 2011. Matt Ryan very rarely has a train wreck game and loses the game by himself, but he very rarely has a superhuman day and wins either. The Falcons beat the teams they should beat and lose to teams better than them. As they've noticed the past few seasons in the playoffs, most postseason teams are harder to beat than the Bucs. (No/No)
Philip Rivers
I've got to admit a bit of personal bias on this one. I've always wondered how Rivers succeeds with such awkward looking mechanics and he seems like kind of a jerk too. He had a down year this year, but is capable of slinging it around if need be. It'd be interesting to see what he could do if SD would ever hire a real coach. SD got a boatload of picks on the draft day swap, but still I'd rather have Eli. (No/No)
Jay Cutler
Cutler has all the talent in the world. He too can make some boneheaded plays and play poorly, but when he's on, he can take over the game. It'll be interesting to see if the new Bears OC will bother drawing up protection plans next year. They were 7-3 before Cutler and Forte went out and trending up. With the right supporting cast, they could be scary next year. (No/No)
Tony Romo
Romo gets way too much blame in the media. He's got a little Favre in him. He'll throw some dumb interceptions or have bad fumbles from time to time. He'll also shred defenses and go out and win a game with scrub receivers and broken ribs against one of the best teams in the conference. We're getting closer to Eli's value now. Romo's a pretty good comparison as far as strengths and weaknesses, but falls just short. (No/No)
Cam Newton
The real wild card of this list. Did you see the dude this year? Probably not because it's the Panthers and they apparently thought this season was defense optional. He's Randall Cunningham Tecmo Bowl good right now and still learning. He's Vick, only bigger (hopefully leading to more durability) and more accurate. While I don't think he's elite right now, I put him this high based off where I think he'll be in the next few years. Rookies aren't supposed to be this good. If his game evolves at all, he'll be elite. (No/Probably Yes)
Ben Roethlisberger
Probably the toughest call. He's a "Proven winner" i.e. his defense is usually good. I'd probably call it too close to say right now, but in the long term, his style of play and already existing injuries will mount. There's no way I'd take him over Eli for the next 5 years. (Even/No)
Tom Brady will be 35 to start next season. I'd rather have Brady for next year, but over 5 I'll take Eli. Either way I look at it, Eli is a top 5 QB which I would define as elite. Also in compiling this list, I noticed lots of the QBs hail from the NFC. With the Pats/Steelers/Ravens/Colts all aging, the NFC could easily regain dominant conference status over the next few years which means the Giants will be in dogfights almost every year. With Eli Manning at the helm, they'll likely come on top on most of them.
No comments:
Post a Comment