Friday, January 4, 2013

NFL playoff predictions

I'll start with what is soon to probably be wrong followed up by analysis of this weekend's matchups
Picks
HOU>CIN
GB>MIN
IND>BAL
SEA>WAS

Round 2
DEN>IND
NE>HOU
ATL>SEA
GB>SF

Conf Champ
DEN>NE
GB>ATL

Super Bowl
DEN>GB

Wild Card Round
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Houston's late season collapse does bother me a bit, but I still think they are the better team overall and are playing at home.  I don't really trust Schaub to carry a team, but I don't trust Andy Dalton either.  If they can shut down AJ Green, they should be able to win an ugly one.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have surprised me with their play recently to win out and get to the playoffs.  Adrian Peterson has been a beast in general and especially against the Packers this year, but Minnesota can't stop Aaron Rodgers either and last week he didn't even have all of his weapons.  I think Peterson gets his yards, but the Vikings magic runs out.  This game could be a blowout.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Colts have obviously benefitted from an easy schedule and good luck in close games, but I still think advanced stats underrate them.  You win in the playoffs with elite QB's.  The Colts have one and Baltimore doesn't.  I really think this game comes down to the play of Joe Flacco.  If Flacco has a relatively good game, Baltimore will win.  If not, the Colts do.  Indy's defense is horrible, but if they don't face a QB capable of exploiting their weaknesses, they can win.  Denver or NE in the next round scares the bejesus out of me.  Baltimore does not although Ray Lewis retiring after the season doesn't help the good guys cause any.  Barring a miracle, this will be his last home game, so I'm sure they'll be pumped up.  I still see one more magic bullet left in Luck's gun.

Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins

The battle of dynamic rookie QB's.  When healthy, RGIII is definitely better than Wilson, but it's close.  RGIII was definitely a step slower against Dallas last week so I doubt he'll be back up to 100% by Sunday.  The deciding factor is Seattle's defense.  Wilson's teammates on the whole are better than RGIII's.  Despite what mainstream media wants you to believe, the other 52 players besides the QB's make a difference in the game too.

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