With a couple data points for each team, let's take a look at how my intuitions this season are playing out.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (12-5)

One of the Super Bowl contenders.  Josh Allen may have a few stinkers, but I still expect them to win the division.

Week 3 update: Right on track.  Still can't believe they lost the Jets game.

Miami Dolphins (11-6)

All predicated on Tua's health.  We saw what this offense could do last year and the defense should be better with the addition of Ramsey and others.

Week 3 update: I'm not sure the defense is better, but the offense sure is good so far.

New York Jets (10-7)

I'm still not sure I'm as high on the offense as the consensus.  QB's fall of a cliff quickly around this time.  But still, they went 7-10 with Zach Wilson last year so the offense just has to be functional for this to be a good team.

Week 3 update: "I'm still not sure I'm as high on the offense as the consensus."  Nailed it!  This offense stinks!  In all seriousness, if you told me Zach Wilson was starting, I'd probably say 6-11.  This is a talented team with a black hole at QB again.

New England Patriots (6-11)

Belichik is still here so defense will be solid enough, but woof the offense has  weapons including the QB.  They'll be competitive, but could be a rough season.

Week 3 update: Seems about right so far.  Two competitive games.  Two losses.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

They've been leading the division the last two years before Lamar Jackson was injured.  If the new OC can keep him healthy and get the offense going, they are a dark horse Super Bowl team.

Week 3 update:  Looks good so far and even better is Cincy's collapse.

Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

Burrow is good (although overrated in the national media) and the receivers will keep the offense going.  Lots of turnover on defense.  We'll see how they can adapt to new personnel.

Week 3 update: Burrow seems like he's hurt.  I still like them to make the playoffs if he's healthy, but if not, could be a long season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

I don't get all the hype.  Pickett was...fine last year.  Still I would feel guilty picking Mike Tomlin to go under .500.  Defense should keep them in enough games to get there.

Week 3 update:  This offense stinks!  I didn't expect it to be this bad.  Still their defense just single handedly won them a game.

Cleveland Browns (6-11)

This is my hill to die on this year.  Watson just isn't really a good QB.  I've thought that since he was in Houston and I saw him against my team 2 times a year.  He'll make some highlight reel plays, but he takes waaaaay too many sacks.  Dumb trade and dumb contract.  Add that to a competitive division and I don't see them close to sniffing the playoffs.

Week 3 update:  I'm very happy with how Watson has performed (because I'm rooting against him).  I'm very sad Chubb got hurt.  He's a fun player.  I think I underestimated the defense and running game in this preview, but now that the running game will not be the same, I'm still confident in it.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

Ridley should be a big boost to the offense and I expect Lawrence to take another step forward this year.  Still some questions on defense, but they should easily win the weak South even if they fall short of the other Super Bowl contenders in the loaded AFC.

Week 3 update:  Lawrence has not looked great in 2 games.  Ridley was excellent in game 1 and invisible in game 2.  Defense has been stout.

Indianapolis Colts (7-10)

I am so glad they got Richardson.  He's dynamic and not as raw as the narrative.  I fell in love with him as a prospect not just due to his physical attributes, but his pocket presence.  

Still the Jonathan Taylor situation looms and the secondary is ridiculously young.  We also don't know how Shaq Leonard is going to look after mostly a year away.  I think they'll score some points, but opposing offenses should be able to throw against them unless the pass rush really steps up.

Week 3 update:  Super impressed with Richardson, but needs to learn how to take hits.  Also pleasantly surprised with Steichen.  Loved his play calls against the Texans.  Baker was horrible though and the secondary remains my biggest concern.  D-Line has been excellent though.  Lots of ups and down this years, but it's a fun team.

Tennessee Titans (6-11)

I keep predicting this every year and maybe I should have a Vrabel rule similar to the Tomlin one.  Still I just don't see the weapons on offense and Henry has to slow down sometime.  Their defense will keep them in games, but a collapse is coming sooner rather than later unless Willis or Levis turn into a guy.

Week 3 update: Putting the Vrabel math in next year.  I don't know how they are competitive every year.

Houston Texans (3-14)

I like Stroud, but after life on a loaded Ohio St team, how does he re-act when he sees more pressure and doesn't have the receiving talent.  Still early in the rebuild the Texans are on the right track, but just don't have enough talent to stack up.

Week 3 update:  Stroud has impressed, but absolutely wrecked by injuries to everyone else.  Giving up a top 5 pick to the Cardinals is going to hurt.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

They have the best coach and by far the best QB in football.  They may not make the Super Bowl, but that starting point guarantees they will always be a contender.

Week 3 update: I stand by this.  A WR single handedly costs them 10 points and a win on opening night where they were missing their 2nd and 3rd best players.  Not sure if I've ever seen that before.  They'll be fine, but the offense is concerning if Kelce is out any more.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

They've got so much talent, they have to do something right?  Is Brandon Staley the next Norv Turner in leading talented Chargers teams to nothing?  I guess we'll find out this year.  I think they'll be fine, but short of the big guns.

Week 3 update:  They are not fine.  At some point all the losing begins to be more than random noise.

Denver Broncos (7-10)

Russ seems cooked.  Payton is a good coach and the roster isn't devoid of talent so I would not be surprised if they snuck into the playoffs with some luck.  The upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett is worth a few wins by itself.

Week 3 update:  They are in trouble this year.  Lost 2 winnable games.  Russ does look better, but this team is almost done.

Oakland Raiders (5-12)

I just don't think McDaniels is a good coach and the defense is so bad going up against all these good AFC QB's.  I'm also baking in a Jimmy G gets hurt variable in this.  If he's healthy all year I think they are close to .500.  History tells us that doesn't happen though.

Week 3 update:  I'm not sure how much we have learned here.  They did at least get a close win this year already.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

There could be some regression here.  Last year was driven by an excellent O-Line and if they get injuries that running game could get stuck in the mud.  AJ Brown is such a game changer here the floor is high enough.  Lots of new defenders, but young and talented so shouldn't be much of a dropoff on that side.

Week 3 update: Offense looks shaky at times, but still a good team.

Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

Kind of the inverse of the Chiefs.  McCarthy and Prescott have some good things, but not sure how much I trust them overall.  Offense has some weapons and defense is scary.

Week 3 update:  Defense is really really really scary.  Prescott also had a wonderful game carving up a good Jets D.  They would be my Super Bowl pick as of today, but we'll see if they can keep it up all year.

Washington Commanders (7-10)

Another mediocre season.  The defense is too good to bottom out and the offense has a few playmakers, but no QB (sorry Sam Howell).  I like the Bienemy addition and think they'll be a tough out, but fall short of a winning record.

Week 3 update:  2-0 even if one was a close game over a very bad team.  They may get that winning record.

New York Giants (6-11)

The regression monster is coming.  Not a whole lot to improve this team from last year.  Daboll is going to have to get every ounce out of Daniel Jones and I'm not counting on another repeat of last year.

Week 3 update:  Narrowly avoided disaster.  They were always going to regress, but didn't think it would be as bad as we've seen so far.

NFC North

Detroit Lions (9-8)

I know this is a fun team, but I hated their draft and now one of their exciting young receivers is suspended.  They got the absolute max out of Goff last year.  If there is any regression, they could be in trouble.  Still the class of a bad division.  

Week 3 update:  Still not super impressed with them.  Still probably won't matter.

Green Bay Packers (8-9)

I'm hedging on Jordan Love being servicable and LaFleur having a pretty good track record as a HC.  This could swing wildly depending on QB play.  Some solid defensive players and a step forward from young guys on offense could lead to a playoff berth.

Week 3 update:  Love is actually 2nd in DVOA, but one of those games is against the Bears so let's pump the breaks a bit after the 0'fer in the 4th quarter against Atlanta.  This could still go either way.

Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

The regression monster is coming Part 2:  Bigger & better.  The Vikings could have the same baseline as last year and finish with this record.  That's how crazy their season was.  Justin Jefferson is such a beast and I see the offense just being too good to bottom out.  I like the Flores addition too, but the defense still won't be good.

Week 3 update: Same as the Giants.  Didn't see regression hitting this hard.

Chicago Bears (5-12)

I guess this is my NFC hill to die on.  Lots of people are talking playoffs and Fields MVP.  Um no.  Can't see it.  He would have to make such a colossal leap this year and I can't see that happening.  Incremental improvement with some better weapons sure.  Also this defense was terrible last year and traded its best player at the deadline.  Even if Fields does take a leap, they are still going no better than 9-8.

Week 3 update:  Is this the most dysfunctional team in football right now?  I'm not sure I would bet them over 4.5 wins at this point and I thought my prediciton was pessimistic.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (11-6)

A product of schedule.  This division plays the NFC North and AFC South.  Someone has to win those games.  The defense is good.  Carr is fine and they've got some offensive weapons.  I don't expect anything in the playoffs, but they have a lot of bad teams to play and are better than most of their opponents.

Week 3 update:  Just gotta be faster than the slowest person to outrun the bear.

Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

A product of schedule.  This division plays the NFC North and AFC South.  Someone has to win those games.  In an average division I would have them under .500 easily.  They are a cut above mediocre.

Week 3 update:  This is a fun team.  Still pretty lucky to be 2-0.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

A product...ok you get the point.  The Bucs still have a good defense and good receivers.  The secret the national media won't reveal is Brady was kind of bad last year.  Is Baker Mayfield that much of a downgrade?  I think the two teams above them improved from last year, but this is about the same team they ran out last year.

Week 3 update:  Again it's the Bears, but 2-0 in a rebuilding year looks nice.

Carolina Panthers (7-10)

I'm not really excited about this team, but despite losing the thread the last few years in Indy, Reich is a solid enough coach and Bryce Young should be ok enough to hang in a few games and pick up a few wins over the dregs.

Week 3 update:  Oof.  Frank is back to his 2nd and long runs and Bryce looks like Mac Jones with better mobility so far.  It's going to be a long season.  Maybe Bears get 1-2 instead of Cards.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

Consider this a hedge on Brock Purdy.  This roster is stacked.  If he plays well they could easily win 14 games.  Even if he's a disaster they are still probably a playoff team.  I went somewhere in between, but this could easily look silly by the end of the year.

Week 3 update:  This looks silly.  Who cares if Brock Purdy can play from behind when they are never ever behind.  Would love to see Niners-Cowboys in the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

I like the pieces they added.  Even with some regression from Geno, I think they'll be around where they were last year and a tick better if he can prove it wasn't a fluke year.

Week 3 update:  I still like this one.

Los Angeles Rams (7-10)

Another one that may look silly by the end of the year.  I think if Stafford/Kupp/Donald stay healthy they'll be a scrappy team, but ultimately don't have the talent.

Week 3 update:  And this one, just replace Kupp with Puka Nacua (must say full name)

Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

They aren't trying to win so I'm not really going to try to analyze them.  It'll be juicy when they pick 1-2 in the draft.

Week 3 update:  The Cardinals and Bears could end up with 2 picks a piece in the top 4.

 NFL Predictions 2023

I would like to point out my most impressive feat first.  I had schedule in mind, but didn't go game by game and on my first run I came out to 272-272 when adding up all the records.  I hope that is an omen for my betting this season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (12-5)

One of the Super Bowl contenders.  Josh Allen may have a few stinkers, but I still expect them to win the division.

Miami Dolphins (11-6)

All predicated on Tua's health.  We saw what this offense could do last year and the defense should be better with the addition of Ramsey and others.

New York Jets (10-7)

I'm still not sure I'm as high on the offense as the consensus.  QB's fall of a cliff quickly around this time.  But still, they went 7-10 with Zach Wilson last year so the offense just has to be functional for this to be a good team.

New England Patriots (6-11)

Belichik is still here so defense will be solid enough, but woof the offense has  weapons including the QB.  They'll be competitive, but could be a rough season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

They've been leading the division the last two years before Lamar Jackson was injured.  If the new OC can keep him healthy and get the offense going, they are a dark horse Super Bowl team.

Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

Burrow is good (although overrated in the national media) and the receivers will keep the offense going.  Lots of turnover on defense.  We'll see how they can adapt to new personnel.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

I don't get all the hype.  Picket was...fine last year.  Still I would feel guilty picking Mike Tomlin to go under .500.  Defense should keep them in enough games to get there.

Cleveland Browns (6-11)

This is my hill to die on this year.  Watson just isn't really a good QB.  I've thought that since he was in Houston and I saw him against my team 2 times a year.  He'll make some highlight reel plays, but he takes waaaaay too many sacks.  Dumb trade and dumb contract.  Add that to a competitive division and I don't see them close to sniffing the playoffs.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

Ridley should be a big boost to the offense and I expect Lawrence to take another step forward this year.  Still some questions on defense, but they should easily win the weak South even if they fall short of the other Super Bowl contenders in the loaded AFC.

Indianapolis Colts (7-10)

I am so glad they got Richardson.  He's dynamic and not as raw as the narrative.  I fell in love with him as a prospect not just due to his physical attributes, but his pocket presence.  

Still the Jonathan Taylor situation looms and the secondary is ridiculously young.  We also don't know how Shaq Leonard is going to look after mostly a year away.  I think they'll score some points, but opposing offenses should be able to throw against them unless the pass rush really steps up.

Tennessee Titans (6-11)

I keep predicting this every year and maybe I should have a Vrabel rule similar to the Tomlin one.  Still I just don't see the weapons on offense and Henry has to slow down sometime.  Their defense will keep them in games, but a collapse is coming sooner rather than later unless Willis or Levis turn into a guy.

Houston Texans (3-14)

I like Stroud, but after life on a loaded Ohio St team, how does he re-act when he sees more pressure and doesn't have the receiving talent.  Still early in the rebuild the Texans are on the right track, but just don't have enough talent to stack up.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

They have the best coach and by far the best QB in football.  They may not make the Super Bowl, but that starting point guarantees they will always be a contender.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

They've got so much talent, they have to do something right?  Is Brandon Staley the next Norv Turner in leading talented Chargers teams to nothing?  I guess we'll find out this year.  I think they'll be fine, but short of the big guns.

Denver Broncos (7-10)

Russ seems cooked.  Payton is a good coach and the roster isn't devoid of talent so I would not be surprised if they snuck into the playoffs with some luck.  The upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett is worth a few wins by itself.

Oakland Raiders (5-12)

I just don't think McDaniels is a good coach and the defense is so bad going up against all these good AFC QB's.  I'm also baking in a Jimmy G gets hurt variable in this.  If he's healthy all year I think they are close to .500.  History tells us that doesn't happen though.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

There could be some regression here.  Last year was driven by an excellent O-Line and if they get injuries that running game could get stuck in the mud.  AJ Brown is such a game changer here the floor is high enough.  Lots of new defenders, but young and talented so shouldn't be much of a dropoff on that side.

Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

Kind of the inverse of the Chiefs.  McCarthy and Prescott have some good things, but not sure how much I trust them overall.  Offense has some weapons and defense is scary.

Washington Commanders (7-10)

Another mediocre season.  The defense is too good to bottom out and the offense has a few playmakers, but no QB (sorry Sam Howell).  I like the Bienemy addition and think they'll be a tough out, but fall short of a winning record.

New York Giants (6-11)

The regression monster is coming.  Not a whole lot to improve this team from last year.  Daboll is going to have to get every ounce out of Daniel Jones and I'm not counting on another repeat of last year.

NFC North

Detroit Lions (9-8)

I know this is a fun team, but I hated their draft and now one of their exciting young receivers is suspended.  They got the absolute max out of Goff last year.  If there is any regression, they could be in trouble.  Still the class of a bad division.  

Green Bay Packers (8-9)

I'm hedging on Jordan Love being servicable and LaFleur having a pretty good track record as a HC.  This could swing wildly depending on QB play.  Some solid defensive players and a step forward from young guys on offense could lead to a playoff berth.

Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

The regression monster is coming Part 2:  Bigger & better.  The Vikings could have the same baseline as last year and finish with this record.  That's how crazy their season was.  Justin Jefferson is such a beast and I see the offense just being too good to bottom out.  I like the Flores addition too, but the defense still won't be good.

Chicago Bears (5-12)

I guess this is my NFC hill to die on.  Lots of people are talking playoffs and Fields MVP.  Um no.  Can't see it.  He would have to make such a colossal leap this year and I can't see that happening.  Incremental improvement with some better weapons sure.  Also this defense was terrible last year and traded its best player at the deadline.  Even if Fields does take a leap, they are still going no better than 9-8.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (11-6)

A product of schedule.  This division plays the NFC North and AFC South.  Someone has to win those games.  The defense is good.  Carr is fine and they've got some offensive weapons.  I don't expect anything in the playoffs, but they have a lot of bad teams to play and are better than most of their opponents.

Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

A product of schedule.  This division plays the NFC North and AFC South.  Someone has to win those games.  In an average division I would have them under .500 easily.  They are a cut above mediocre.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

A product...ok you get the point.  The Bucs still have a good defense and good receivers.  The secret the national media won't reveal is Brady was kind of bad last year.  Is Baker Mayfield that much of a downgrade?  I think the two teams above them improved from last year, but this is about the same team they ran out last year.

Carolina Panthers (7-10)

I'm not really excited about this team, but despite losing the thread the last few years in Indy, Reich is a solid enough coach and Bryce Young should be ok enough to hang in a few games and pick up a few wins over the dregs.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

Consider this a hedge on Brock Purdy.  This roster is stacked.  If he plays well they could easily win 14 games.  Even if he's a disaster they are still probably a playoff team.  I went somewhere in between, but this could easily look silly by the end of the year.

Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

I like the pieces they added.  Even with some regression from Geno, I think they'll be around where they were last year and a tick better if he can prove it wasn't a fluke year.

Los Angeles Rams (7-10)

Another one that may look silly by the end of the year.  I think if Stafford/Kupp/Donald stay healthy they'll be a scrappy team, but ultimately don't have the talent.

Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

They aren't trying to win so I'm not really going to try to analyze them.  It'll be juicy when they pick 1-2 in the draft.

Playoffs are too random so I'm not picking, but from my standings

AFC

1.  Chiefs

2.  Ravens

3.  Bills

4.  Jags

5.  Bengals

6.  Dolphins

7.  Chargers

NFC

1.  Eagles

2.  49ers

3.  Saints

4.  Lions

5.  Cowboys

6.  Seahawks

7.  Falcons (seriously?  NFC blows outside of its top 3)

College football playoff analysis

Championship games will determine the college football playoff participants this year with reasonably 9 teams still in contention and a lot of different scenarios.  How they all play out is fascinating and worthy of further analysis.

All non-Pac 12 championship participants plus Alabama have dreams of getting into the playoff.  Standings after week 13
1.  Clemson
2.  Auburn
3.  Oklahoma
4.  Wisconsin
5.  Alabama
6.  Georgia
7.  Miami
8.  Ohio State
11.  TCU

Penn St is #9 but has no realistic chance to make it.  At least 3 teams ahead of them will win and Alabama is ahead of them and idle.

USC is #10, but again at least 3 teams ahead of them will win and I can't see a win over Stanford pushing the needle enough to get past Alabama or one of the other champs.

The winner of the ACC and SEC will get in.  Some may argue Miami, but if they beat Clemson, their resume vs. Alabama is a slam dunk even if Alabama may actually be a better team.

The losers this weekend (with 2 possible remote exceptions) are eliminated.  That leaves really 4 scenarios with not many variables.

Scenario 1:  Wisconsin and Oklahoma win
This is the easy one.  The top 4 remain the same and probably in that order.

Scenario 2:  Ohio St and Oklahoma win
Top 3 remain the same and the debate over #4 is between Ohio St and Alabama.

Scenario 3:  Wisconsin and TCU win
Oklahoma falls out of top 3 and debate is between TCU and Alabama.  Probably not as close as the Ohio St./Alabama debate.

Scenario 3 (wacky subplot):  Miami wins a close game over Clemson in addition to TCU/Wisconsin wins.  Would Clemson get the nod over Alabama and TCU?  Maybe.  It's at least a possibility.  Could also apply to Scenario 2 as well, but less likely.

Scenario 4:  Ohio St and TCU win
The closest thing to total chaos.  Last 2 spots would be a debate between OSU/TCU/Alabama and maybe Clemson under same wacky subplot as scenario 3 if Miami wins.

Scenario 4 (additional wacky subplot):  TCU and OSU both win close games.  Could the committee jump Oklahoma over OSU in this scenario due to head to head and also over Alabama?  Maybe.  This option certainly provides the most debate

I'd love to see one of the wacky scenarios play out, but chances are we either see the Top 4 stay the same with little argument or we get a few days talking points on Alabama vs. OSU and/or TCU arguments. 

How I learned to stop worrying and embrace the pass

Or Why Chuck Pagano will not coach the Colts in 2016.


The Colts season mercifully came to a close yesterday with a win over the on-the-clock Titans resulting in an 8-8 record.  The Pagano-Grigson war has been waging all year, but at this point it appears the only question remaining is whether Grigson will follow Pagano out the door. 


Boiled down to one point, Pagano's biggest failure as a coach is his "Run the ball, stop the run" mantra.  This hasn't been true in the NFL for years and will very likely not be true again next year.  The top 6 passing offenses in DVOA made the playoffs.  8 of the top 9 passing defenses made the playoffs.  This is not a coincidence.  True, the best teams are good at both, but if you are building a team, you absolutely must worry about the pass first.


For all his failings, I generally think he's done a good job.  He got decent results with very little talent on defense, went 8-8 with garbage QB play this year and generally has his players' support.  Time after time, they have acquired players to run/stop the run to fit his scheme.  If Grigson also believes this, he needs to go too and I'll certain advocate that.  Pagano was not taking the Colts to the promised land and they need to move on to a coach that might.  Chances are it'll be someone who is more in tune to what wins in the NFL.  That will make me happy.  Or they'll hire Jon Gruden and I'll be forced to become a Texans fan.

What is wrong with the BBWAA

Time go to FJM style on this ridiculous Murray Chass article.

One and done.

I placed an X next to Jack Morris on my Hall of Fame ballot, and I was finished voting. If Morris is elected, I will most likely be finished voting period. If Morris is not elected this time, I will vote for him next year in his final year of eligibility and then be done.

Barring a change in my thinking, which I don’t expect, I believe the time has come to relinquish my right as a 10-year (actually 50-year) member of the Baseball Writers Association of America to vote in the Hall of Fame election.

You mean you'll really stop?  This is a great late Christmas present.  I mean sure you are going to vote for about the 18th most qualified man on the ballot, but then go away?  Thanks!

I offer two reasons for my decision.

Though I don’t believe there is a more qualified set of electors, certainly not the new-age stats guys who are envious of the writers and believe they should determine Hall of Famers, I don’t think reporters and columnists who cover and comment on baseball news should be making baseball news.

Only grizzled veteran writers are allowed to make news.  What the hell does this even mean?  How is a writer different than a columnist who covers baseball anyway?  All reporters should stick to telling me what Yadier Molilna batting average is (.315 by the way).

The steroids issue has made it impossible to conduct a rational vote and cast a reasonable ballot. No matter how a writer votes or on what he bases his decision whom to vote for or not to vote for, his reasoning has to be flawed and open to challenge.

Agreed.  We don't know who cheated or not.  Come to think of it, some people may have cheated in the past.  Let's kick them out instead.  Why do we even need a Hall of Fame.  Let's just have a Hall of Jack Morris and call it done.

I have read and heard all sorts of explanations for voting or not voting for players listed on the ballot, the focus falling on players known to have used performance-enhancing substances (i.e. those who tested positive) or those who were suspected or having used them (especially those cases where circumstantial evidence e of use was strong).

There are the writers who say they will not vote for anyone who cheated. There are writers who say they will vote for players who established Hall of Fame credentials before they became cheaters.

There are writers who say they will ignore steroids use, even in obvious cases, and vote as if the stuff didn’t exist because it’s impossible to know for sure who used and who didn’t use. And anyway Major League Baseball ignored all of the cheating so why shouldn’t they, the last group argues.
A. Bartlett Giamatti, the late commissioner, used to say in applicable situations, “You could use a higher standard,” and that suggestion would apply here for the writers who throw up their hands and say, “How am I supposed to know who cheated and who didn’t?”

Steroids are bad.  They shouldn't have used them.  Baseball should have banned them before, but didn't.  If you want to make this argument for Raffy or Manny Ramirez when he comes up, fine.  They failed the drug test after it became illegal.  I don't necessarily agree with even that, but I could buy that argument at least.  I'm so glad the Hall of Jack Morris won't contain spitballers or players who used amphetamines before testing either.

It’s a perfectly good and fair question to ask, but it shouldn’t be answered by voting for known or suspected cheaters. The most logical answer is don’t vote. I have not made a study of the matter, but I noticed the other day a column on ESPN.com by T.J. Quinn, who declared an end to his voting. Good for him. Are there any other sensible writers in the house?

Don't vote.  Unless it's for Jack Morris.  Everyone may have cheated.  Who knows?  I heard one time Dale Murphy stole a sign while on second base.  Even if you think his numbers stack up, how could you vote for such a cheating cheater?  Better to just not let anyone in the Hall of Fame.

Now, you might ask and reasonably so, if I plan to stop voting, why did I vote this year? I voted in the hope that my vote would contribute to Morris’ election. I didn’t vote for anyone else because anyone I might have considered was a known or suspected cheater, and I didn’t want to aid and abet a cheater.

You are making such great points.   Screw the Hall of Jack Morris idea.  Let's have a Hall of Clean players instead.  Has it been 5 years yet since Eckstein retired?  Screw it, he's in anyway.  Have you seen how small and scrappy he was?  No way that dude used steroids.

I think I am safe in concluding that Morris did not cheat. I know the stats zealots don’t think Morris is a Hall of Famer because his rankings in their new-fangled ratings fall below their standards. But they don‘t have a formula for intestinal fortitude or determination.

Not true.  Morris' intestinal fortitude was 35.7 for his career and determination was -10.4.  I know.  I was surprised too.  His final season in Cleveland really brought down the latter number.  Screw all these sciency proven type numbers like WARPFJAGNWER.  They tell us nothing about Jack Morris or any other player.  You know who should get to vote for the Hall of Fame?  X-Ray machines.  They know intestinal fortitude.

Morris willed the Minnesota Twins to win Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, refusing to leave as long as the game was scoreless.

Single game intestinal fortitude rating of 165.3 an all time high.

The stats zealots are tired of hearing about that game, but it is symbolic of the fatal flaw in their way of viewing players. Numbers simply don’t tell the whole story.

True.  They tell a lot of the story though.  I'm fine with using big moments or character issues as tie breakers, but numbers kind of tell you how good a player was at playing baseball.  This seems like an important thing for determing how good someone was at playing baseball.

“They seem to have formed a band those fellows, and I don’t know if you’re ever going to change their mind,” Tom Kelly said in a telephone interview Wednesday evening. Kelly managed Morris with the Twins and managed against him when he played for Detroit and Toronto.

Dude, I love this band especially this song.  Saw them live twice!

Coincidentally, Kelly had watched a replay of the 10-inning 1-0 Game 7 earlier in the day. “It was snowing and I sat there and flipped the channels,” he said. The game naturally brought back memories.

I was snowed in last week too.  Watched several episodes of Breaking Bad.  You know who belongs in the Hall of Fame?  Walter White!  His determination rating is off the charts.

“I remember saying to myself in the dugout I gotta find a way to get a run,” Kelly recalled. “I was starting to get concerned that I couldn’t help the boys get a run.”
Morris pitched all 10 innings. John Smoltz, the Atlanta starter, left in the eighth.

John Smoltz isn't on the ballot yet.  Leaving in the 8th inning of one game is cause enough to not get my vote though.

“To me,” Kelly said, “the hardest part of the game for those two guys was their teams had opportunities to score and they didn’t. Other pitchers would have crumbled. Those two fellows kept going out there and being nasty.”

Like Roger Clemens.  Definitely would've stumbled.  Can you imagine pitching 10 innings without receiving a steroid injection by at least the 7th?

Morris, Kelly added, “did that quite often through the ‘80s and ‘90s. He shut down the other team. If he had the split-finger thing going you felt sorry for the other team. Through the ‘80s and ‘90s if you had a pitcher you had to pick out whom you didn’t want to face Morris had to be in the conversation.

The conversation:

Guy #1:  Who is the pitcher whom you don't want to face in the 80's or 90's?
Guy #2:  That's a random question to ask while at a funeral, but well ok.  I guess Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Dwight Gooden off the top of my head.
Guy #1:  What about Jack Morris?
Guy #2:  He was pretty good, but no.  Not really
Guy #1:  Yeah me either.  Sorry for your loss.

Yep in the conversation.

“People just don’t know what it was like to sit there and watch from either side of the field. I got to do both.”

My uncle once had seats to consecutive games on the 1st base AND 3rd base side of the field.

Lest anyone think Kelly was praising Morris because he managed him, I note that they were together only one year in Morris’ 18-year career.

“I sure hope it goes his way,” Kelly said. “It seems absurd that he’s not in. How many rings does he have? Three? I wish those young guys would look at that.”

A few players with six rings
Joe Collins
Jerry Coleman
Tommy Byrne
Charlie Silvera

I've never heard of any of them, but let's go ahead and give them 1.5 plaques in Cooperstown.

In case those “young guys” don’t know what Kelly is talking about, he was referring to the three World Series championship rings Morris won with three different teams. That was no accident or coincidence, Kelly would tell them. Morris was instrumental in the success the Tigers, the Twins and the Blue Jays had in their championship seasons.

I am too young to remember the Tigers championship so I suppose he's talking about me.

Other players instrumental to these championships

Kirk Gibson '84 Tigers .282/.363/.516

Shane Mack '91 Twins .310/.363/.529

Pat Hentgen '92 Jays 19-9 3.87 ERA

Who's to say the 6 games Tom Edens started for the Twins didn't propel them there either

Hall of Fame plaques for everyone!

For what it's worth Morris' stats in the 92 WS
0-2 8.44 ERA in 10.2 innings

[redacted long rambling diatribe about Gil Hodges]

Morris could be hurt or helped by how writers vote on the cheaters. If they go big for the big names, they will very likely not include Morris. If they choose to reject the cheaters, Morris figures to benefit. If Morris isn’t elected this time, he could face a problem next year because Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will be on the ballot for the first time.

Having pitchers who were much better players than Jack Morris will hurt his case.  No argument here.

Years ago, I introduced a motion at a national writers’ meeting that we withdraw from voting. Had the motion been voted on at that meeting, I think it would have had a good chance of passing. If it had passed, we wouldn’t be debating the steroids issue now. But a quick-thinking writer moved to table the vote until the entire national membership could vote by mail.

My motion easily lost so here we are today talking about Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell among others.

This is so unfathomable stupid I don't think I can be snarky.  Let's not do the one really important thing we are tasked to do.

I spoke to several writers about their ballots and found that two had voted for Biggio and two others hadn’t because of a suspicion in baseball circles that he used steroids. When Bagwell was eligible initially a couple of years ago, I voted for him, then was told he was a steroids guy. Trusting the information, I haven’t voted for him since.

I will paypal $50 to the first writer that emails Murray Chass telling him Jack Morris used steroids. 

[redacted long bizarre rambling on Mike Piazza and back acne.  Almost as long as the Jack Morris article itself]

TL:DR version
Murray Chass is voting for Jack Morris because of his internal organs
Steroids are confusing
Mike Piazza had back acne.

NFL playoff predictions

I'll start with what is soon to probably be wrong followed up by analysis of this weekend's matchups
Picks
HOU>CIN
GB>MIN
IND>BAL
SEA>WAS

Round 2
DEN>IND
NE>HOU
ATL>SEA
GB>SF

Conf Champ
DEN>NE
GB>ATL

Super Bowl
DEN>GB

Wild Card Round
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Houston's late season collapse does bother me a bit, but I still think they are the better team overall and are playing at home.  I don't really trust Schaub to carry a team, but I don't trust Andy Dalton either.  If they can shut down AJ Green, they should be able to win an ugly one.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have surprised me with their play recently to win out and get to the playoffs.  Adrian Peterson has been a beast in general and especially against the Packers this year, but Minnesota can't stop Aaron Rodgers either and last week he didn't even have all of his weapons.  I think Peterson gets his yards, but the Vikings magic runs out.  This game could be a blowout.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Colts have obviously benefitted from an easy schedule and good luck in close games, but I still think advanced stats underrate them.  You win in the playoffs with elite QB's.  The Colts have one and Baltimore doesn't.  I really think this game comes down to the play of Joe Flacco.  If Flacco has a relatively good game, Baltimore will win.  If not, the Colts do.  Indy's defense is horrible, but if they don't face a QB capable of exploiting their weaknesses, they can win.  Denver or NE in the next round scares the bejesus out of me.  Baltimore does not although Ray Lewis retiring after the season doesn't help the good guys cause any.  Barring a miracle, this will be his last home game, so I'm sure they'll be pumped up.  I still see one more magic bullet left in Luck's gun.

Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins

The battle of dynamic rookie QB's.  When healthy, RGIII is definitely better than Wilson, but it's close.  RGIII was definitely a step slower against Dallas last week so I doubt he'll be back up to 100% by Sunday.  The deciding factor is Seattle's defense.  Wilson's teammates on the whole are better than RGIII's.  Despite what mainstream media wants you to believe, the other 52 players besides the QB's make a difference in the game too.

Notes from Colts-Jags

After a long weekend of not getting enough sleep, I had one simple goal for yesterday.  Do not leave the couch and consume lots of football.  Lots of good stuff yesterday.

Colts-Jags breakdown:

I hate losing to the Sparkle Kitties.  The only solace is this isn't a playoff team this year anyway.  Getting Luck experience and starting to shape the roster is the most important part.  That said, the roster can only do what the coaches allow it to do.  After 3 weeks my opinion of Chuck Pagano is trending downwards.  There's still time for him to learn, but after 2 horrifically coached 4th quarters, my expectations have been lowered.

You have the top pick from the draft, a QB who is the best prospect since your last #1 overall pick.  Let the strengths of the team win the game.  It infuriates me to no end when coaches play conservatively in the 4th quarter.  No media is talking about how bad Pagano was yesterday, but they are all questioning Jim Schwartz.  That's ludicrous.  However you want to parse the odds for the Lions, it's questionable or a gamble at worst.  Pagano's decisions did much more to harm the Colts chances of winning.

The Colts followed the usual game plan against Jacksonville for most of the game.  Get some offense and grab the lead then let MJD gash them to tighten up the score. 

Mistake #1  How the field goal team was not ready to kick is completely on the coaching staff.  There were time outs left, and even if that happens sometimes, you can't just waste 5 yards.  The initial kick would've been good had the delay of game not occurred and the outcome may have been very different.

Mistake #2 Playing for the field goal on the next possession.  How many times over the years have we seen Peyton leave a magnificent drive only to have the other team come back and re-take the lead?  It is absolutely unacceptable to stop trying and run the ball into the line 3 times and settle for a mid-range field goal to go up by a point.  Again, you have Andrew Luck.  He's good.  You have Reggie Wayne.  He's good.  You have a bad defense.  One first down probably wins this game.  A touchdown forces Blaine freaking Gabbert to drive for a touchdown and you can play prevent knowing a field goal won't beat you.  Making Andrew Luck hand the ball off 3 straight times is completely unacceptable.  Not to mention Vinatieri made the field goal by the slimmest of margins.

Mistake #3 No deep safety.  The last Jags TD was comically bad defense by the safety who spun around in circles covering no one, but why wasn't there a deep safety to prevent exactly the type of thing that happened?  Sure they only needed a field goal (see Mistake #3), but you have to eliminate the home run.  Crappy QB on the road with under a minute of clock left and no timeouts.  Make him string together 3-4 completions while managing the clock if you need to.  Don't give up an 80 yard touchdown from a 15 yard catch and long run.

Other good stuff:

-Andrew Luck played a great game.  That pass to Hilton for the TD was simply amazing.
-Reggie Wayne continues to be a great security blanket for a rookie QB. 
-Donald Brown had a good game.  I don't get a lot of the vitrol towards him.  I don't think he's elite, but he's a perfectly acceptable starting back who does some little things well.  It's yard to boast a good YPC, when he's hit in the backfield every other time he gets the ball.
-Jerrell Freeman continues to play well.
-Some good returns on special teams

Other bad stuff:

-Offensive line is still shaky.  Better than in previous weeks, but not much running room and Luck got hit a lot.  At least they limited the sacks and really bad plays.
-Vontae Davis is about to nicknamed "Human Pass Interference Machine".  Having trouble covering Brandon Marshall is one thing.  Grabbing every Jags receiver near you is another. 
-Officiating was brutal in this game.  I mention this last simply because the Colts had other things that caused them to lose the game, but it did seem like an inordinate amount of calls went the Jags way.  Missed PI's (especially on the long throw late in the game), phantom calls and yet more non-calls continue to be a problem.  More on this in a general post later.